Article author:
Sonja Arsić, Jelena Obradović
Full article:
Year the article was released:
2014
Edition in this Year:
1
Article abstract:
EGRESS OF THE CRISIS: STAGNATION OR GROWTH?
Summary: The global economic crisis has left a huge impact on the economies of many countries and has destroyed their financial systems. While at the beginning the main problem was prevention of complete collapse of the financial system, now, a few years later, the economy faces with the problem of stagnation. Predictions about the end of crisis by 2010 was wrong. Even if the countries get out of crisis, we don’t know what kind of recovery it will be. Will it have the characteristics of the impressive growth or will it be very low? Government intervention is necessary to stimulate economic growth in this situation. The market is good regulator, but it is not efficient enough to solve problems caused by the crisis.
Summary: The global economic crisis has left a huge impact on the economies of many countries and has destroyed their financial systems. While at the beginning the main problem was prevention of complete collapse of the financial system, now, a few years later, the economy faces with the problem of stagnation. Predictions about the end of crisis by 2010 was wrong. Even if the countries get out of crisis, we don’t know what kind of recovery it will be. Will it have the characteristics of the impressive growth or will it be very low? Government intervention is necessary to stimulate economic growth in this situation. The market is good regulator, but it is not efficient enough to solve problems caused by the crisis.
The aim of this paper is showing that overcoming the crisis mainly involves a long period of economic stagnation in affected countries and that high rates of economic growth a few years after the beginning of the crisis are not real. After every major breakdown it is required a decade-long period in order to be “broken” economy pulled out of recession, and only after the stabilization of the economy, which means stagnation, one can expect a slight growth.
In this paper it will be used the following methods: analysis, synthesis method, the method of abstraction, comparison method, the method of generalization. The research will be conducted on a random sample of European countries that have been selected by free choice, given the country’s size, population and level of economic development. Belgium, Sweden, the Czech Republic and Austria have the approximate size of the country’s population and level of economic development. These countries will be observed in the group of developed countries. Within the group of developing countries it will be analyzed the following countries: Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Croatia and Albania.
Keywords: crisis, stagnation, economic growth.
IZLAZAK IZ KRIZE: STAGNACIJA ILI PRIVREDNI RAST?
Rezime: Svetska ekonomska kriza je ostavila velike posledice na privrede velikog broja zemalja i razorila je njihove finansijske sisteme. I dok je na početku osnovni problem bio sprečiti potpuni kolaps finansijskog sistema sada, nekoliko godina od početka krize, privrede se suočavaju sa problemom stagnacije. Prognoze da će kriza biti završena do 2010. godine su omanule. Čak i da zemlje krenu putem oporavka, ne zna se kakav će on biti. Da li će oporavak imati karakteristike impozantnog rasta ili će biti veoma skroman? Sve je prisutnije shvatanje da je neophodna državna intervencija kako bi se stimulisao privredni rast. Tržište je dobar regulator, ali ne i dovoljno efikasan za rešavanje problema izazvanih krizom.
Cilj ovog rada je da dokaže da izlazak iz krize uglavnom podrazumeva dugi period stagnacije privreda pogođenih zemalja i da visoke stope privrednog rasta nakon samo nekoliko godina od početka krize nisu realne. Nakon svakog velikog sloma potreban je decenijski period kako bi se “slomljene” privrede izvukle iz recesije, a tek nakon stabilizacije privreda, koja podrazumeva stagnaciju, se može očekivati blagi privredni rast. U radu će biti korišćene sledeće metode: metod analize, metod sinteze, metod apstrakcije, metod komparacije, metod generalizacije. Istraživanje će biti sprovedeno na slučajnom uzorku evropskih zemalja koje su izabrane po slobodnom izboru autora, imajući u vidu veličinu zemlje, broj stanovnika i nivo privredne razvijenosti. Belgija, Švedska, Češka i Austrija su zemlje približne veličine populacije i nivoa privredne razvijenosti. Ove zemlje će biti posmatrane u okviru grupe razvijenih zemalja. U okviru grupe zemalja u razvoju biće analizirane sledeće zemlje: Srbija, Bosna i Hercegovina (BIH), Hrvatska i Albanija.
Ključne reči: kriza, stagnacija, privredni rast.