THE IMPACT OF TRADE LIBERALIZATION OF BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA’S EXPORT TO EUROPEAN UNION
Abstract: One of the basic and strategic goals of post-war Bosnia and Herzegovina is a full membership in the European Union. During 1992-1995, Bosnia and Herzegovina has passed through one of the most diffi cult periods in its’ history. Th e war has completely devastated the economical structure and the aftermaths were visible in the following years. As a new paradigm, the European Union appears. Th e European Union has helped the Western Balkans countries to overcome national tensions and off ered them a new perspective; new regional and european integrations should be a new, historical chance for them. In the light of this, the focus of this paper is the impact of trade liberalization between the European Union and Bosnia and Herzegovina on the export from Bosnia and Herzegovina to European Union. Th e above mentioned impact has been observed in the period of eleven years. Th e total export amount of Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2015 was 4,6 billion euros, while the amount of the import was 8,1 billion euros, which makes nearly 60% in favor of import. Traditionally, Bosnia and Herzegovina’s most important foreign trade partner is the European Union where Bosnia and Herzegovina has a defi cit in foreign trade. Th e portion of export to EU during 2015 was 71,79% while the portion of import was 60,85%. Th e coverage of import over export was 66,89%. In the period of 2005-2015, most of the products have been placed to markets in Croatia, Germany, Italy, and Serbia, which is not the EU member. Th e process of trade liberalization in 2015 has resulted in surplus of trade with certain EU countries; Austria, Luxembourg and Estonia while the decrease in trade has been recorded with Germany, Slovenia and Czech Republic. Regarding the export, Bosnia and Herzegovina mailny places products which have labour-intensive character. In the econometrics analysis, extented gravitational models of trade have been placed. Besides the abovementioned, the following econometrical techinques have been used: panel data models (PD), fi xed eff ecs models (RE) and panel corrected standard errors (PCSE). In addition, Hausman test has been applied. According to the analysis that has been carried out, the following has been concluded; InGDPi, InGDPj and InDISTij variables are statistically important on the level of 5% in the period of gradual liberalization. Th e SSP1 an EK variables are not siginifi cant.In the other moder, in the period of complete liberalization InGDPi, InGDPj and SSP2 variables have a signifi cant impact on a dependent variable on a level of 5%. InDISTij and EK variables have a signifi cant impact on a level od 5% as well. Th e above mentioned result confi rm the research hypothesis; trade liberalization has a signifi cant impact on the export of Bosnia and Herzegovina to the EU. Th e basic limit of this research can be a relatively short observation period, caused by the fact that the data of merchandise trade between Bosnia and Herzegovina and EU countries until 2005 are not accessible.
Keywords: trade, economic gravity model, panel data regression, random eff ect
Sažetak: Ovaj rad predstavlja istraživanje o uticaju liberalizacije trgovine na izvoz iz Bosne i Hercegovine (BiH) u Evropsku uniju (EU). U radu je primijenjen ekonomski gravitacioni model, te ekonometrijske tehnike: model panel podataka (PD), model fi ksnih efekata (FE), model slučajnih efekata (RE) i panel sa korigovanim standardnim greškama (PCSE). Rezultati istraživanja ukazuju da liberalizacija nije imala signifi kantan uticaj na izvoz u periodu postepene liberalizacije (2008-2012), prije svega jer su nacionalne ekonomije većine zemalja EU bile u recesiji. S druge strane, liberalizacija je imala signifi kantan uticaj u periodu potpune liberalizacije (2013-2015), kada je većina nacionalnih ekonomija izašla iz recesije. Na kraju, može se zaključiti da je liberalizacija trgovine rezultirala povećanjem izvoza iz Bosne i Hercegovine u Evropsku uniju. Osnovno ograničenje ovog istraživanja jeste kratak period posmatranja, odnosno podaci o izvozu do 2005. godine nisu dostupni. Rezultati analize mogu predstavljati smjernice buduće spoljnotrgovinske politike BiH, kako bi pozitivni efekti liberalizacije na izvoz bili još veći.
Ključne riječi: trgovinska razmjena, gravitacioni model, panel regresija, slučajni efekti